Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4475…0879 crypto 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$401 (+4%) realized +$401 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%41W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$608
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +110.0% +90.0% 50% 42% -6.2%
≤30d 16 +57.5% +42.5% 38% 31% -19.7%
≤90d 44 +8.2% -2.1% 36% 34% -19.6%
all 147 +1.2% -8.5% 28% 27% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 27% -15.7%
10% -17.2% 27% -23.8%
15% -25.2% 25% -31.2%
20% -32.6% 23% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$50 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$401
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses41 / 106
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage127d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions (98 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$54 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $105 +$248 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $104 −$40 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $371 −$262 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $80 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $109 +$44 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$41 +389%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $84 +$258 +306%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 04 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 04 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 19 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 19 $16 +$31 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 19 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 02 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 02 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 02 $671 −$633 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 02 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 02 $44 −$41 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 02 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 02 $92 +$151 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 02 $52 +$38 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 02 $154 +$103 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 02 $129 +$58 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 02 $208 +$203 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 02 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 02 $50 +$28 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 02 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 02 $218 +$247 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 02 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 02 $86 −$81 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 02 $186 +$123 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 02 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 02 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 02 $23 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 21 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 21 $310 −$306 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 21 $86 −$85 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 21 $62 −$61 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$74 +147%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $353 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $142 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $342 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $84 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 379 history records