Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:42:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
44 0x4476…be40 sports 153 markets active 0h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$352 (-4%) realized −$352 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate67%102W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$35
14 days+$71
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$65
other 14% −$299
crypto 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +11.1% +0.5% 80% 60% -3.9%
≤30d 52 +13.2% +2.4% 79% 60% -8.4%
≤90d 58 +9.4% -1.0% 78% 55% -11.3%
all 153 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 54% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 54% -13.6%
10% -18.1% 34% -21.9%
15% -26.0% 21% -29.4%
20% -33.3% 12% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$32 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$352
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses102 / 51
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)153 / 153
History coverage167d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 153 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $102 +$29 +28%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $28 +$4 +13%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $92 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $71 +$21 +30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $110 −$39 -36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $36 +$3 +10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $31 +$6 +20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $45 −$14 -31%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $29 +$17 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $34 +$5 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $62 −$7 -11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $48 −$7 -14%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $18 −$10 -54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$4 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $23 +$11 +50%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $87 +$18 +21%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $25 +$15 +60%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $15 +$6 +39%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $7 +$4 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $35 +$8 +23%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $16 +$7 +46%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $11 −$10 -87%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $80 +$12 +15%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lavked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series Jun 05 $46 −$22 -48%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $15 +$15 +101%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $13 +$11 +82%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $15 +$9 +62%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 02 $26 +$9 +34%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $16 +$3 +16%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $40 +$6 +16%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $15 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $15 +$10 +68%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $20 +$6 +32%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $17 +$3 +17%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 24 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 24 $34 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 24 $23 +$3 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 24 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 24 $14 −$9 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 24 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 24 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 24 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 24 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 24 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 24 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 24 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 77¢ $131 2m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 59¢ $32 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $28 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $99 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 93¢ $92 26h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 64¢ $92 42h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 48¢ $71 43h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 49¢ $71 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 73¢ $40 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $40 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 91¢ $36 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $37 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 83¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 52¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $70 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $45 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $46 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $12 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $29 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 82¢ $40 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $34 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 97¢ $34 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 57¢ $21 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 42¢ $21 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 83¢ $41 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 75¢ $41 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $48 9d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 26¢ $8 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 373 history records