Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x447c…49b2 other 21 markets active 2d ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$51
sports 34% −$48
culture 19% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -47.8% -52.8% 20% 20% -48.2%
≤30d 11 -52.0% -56.6% 18% 18% -42.9%
≤90d 18 -32.5% -38.9% 33% 28% -12.8%
all 18 -32.5% -38.9% 33% 28% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 28% -12.8%
10% -44.8% 22% -21.1%
15% -50.1% 22% -28.8%
20% -55.0% 22% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage68d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $16 $18 +$1 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $17 +$10 +62%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $14 $0 -1%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Jun 01 $97 −$17 -18%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 −$7 -37%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 21 $20 +$4 +21%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $13 +$9 +65%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 3 FC Barcelona? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $20 +$15 +76%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 3 - 1 FC Barcelona? Apr 14 $3 −$1 -40%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $67 +$57 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $8 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $30 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $27 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 12d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 12d
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $40 16d
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder $1 17d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 23d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 23d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 23d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 23d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 23d
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $61 33d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 33d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 35d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 37d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $13 39d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 42d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 63d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 63d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 63d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 63d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.45 · official $51.45 (match) · 66 history records