Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:06:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

44 0x447c…34d3 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$259 (-50%) realized −$253 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$48per market

Trades / day1.8pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	8	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	8	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	8	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$32 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$244

Realized−$253

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 8

Open positions3

Markets (closed)8 / 11

History coverage6d

Avg bet$48

Trades / day1.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$160	$155	−$5 (-3%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	19¢	18¢	$80	$78	−$2 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$41	−$40	-97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$82	−$80	-98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$41	−$40	-97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$41	−$40	-97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 14	$21	−$20	-98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	16¢	$164	1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	19¢	$82	1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	8¢	$41	36h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$82	36h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$41	2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$41	2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	11¢	$21	3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$21	5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.35 · official $244.35 (match) · 12 history records