Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x447f…f362 sports 520 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,389 (-1%) realized −$1,941 · open −$448
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate76%396W / 125L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day45.4pace
Fees−$466est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$219
7 days−$719
14 days−$202
30 days−$2,236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$1,442
other 40% −$590
world 10% −$741
finance 5% +$58
crypto 2% +$16
politics 1% +$40
tech 0% +$8
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +9.6% -0.8% 75% 18% -10.1%
≤30d 247 -0.2% -9.7% 78% 18% -11.1%
≤90d 521 +0.3% -9.3% 76% 17% -10.6%
all 521 +0.3% -9.3% 76% 17% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 17% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 9% -19.2%
15% -25.9% 6% -27.0%
20% -33.1% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$70 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$657
Realized−$1,941
Unrealized−$448
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses396 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$466
Open positions85
Markets (closed)521 / 520
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$326
Trades / day45.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 85 History 521 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 88¢ 48¢ $1,007 $541 −$465 (-46%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Down 75¢ 78¢ $75 $78 +$2 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ $0 $4 +$3 (+1007%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+2031%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+1929%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+1916%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ $0 $3 +$2 (+701%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+569%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+299%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+239%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+610%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+546%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+546%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+160%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $1 +$0 (+278%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $1 +$0 (+246%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $1 +$0 (+52%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+41%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+188%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+35%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+174%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+111%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $49 $0 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $1,057 +$7 +1%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $1,037 +$15 +1%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $967 +$2 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $797 +$163 +20%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 17 $60 +$23 +38%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $599 +$10 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $532 +$168 +32%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $55 +$4 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $367 −$335 -91%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 16 $2,129 +$5 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end Jun 16 $20 +$80 +390%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $465 +$35 +8%
World Cup: Winless Team? Jun 16 $0 +$2 +800%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $437 −$281 -64%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 15? Jun 15 $153 +$13 +8%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? Jun 15 $467 +$11 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $102 +$48 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $750 −$470 -63%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $142 $0 -0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $42 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $2,169 +$29 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,126 +$49 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,254 +$24 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a Jun 15 $10 +$30 +291%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $2,320 +$3 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $3,078 +$154 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $397 −$32 -8%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $60 +$40 +66%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $152 −$54 -36%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $827 +$8 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $484 +$6 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 14 $120 +$122 +102%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $255 +$26 +10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $46 +$4 +8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $171 +$5 +3%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 14 $92 +$10 +10%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $1,186 −$394 -33%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $960 +$20 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $160 +$40 +25%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $92 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 75¢ $75 3m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL South Africa 98¢ $49 31m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 97¢ $49 35m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $97 48m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $546 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $38 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $27 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $58 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $271 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $92 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $200 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $297 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $910 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $920 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $910 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $656.59 · official $656.60 (match) · 3500 history records