Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:19:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
44 0x447f…a05e other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,934 (+7%) realized +$13,159 · open −$225
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate67%22W / 11L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,165per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$988est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$3,075now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$6,579
sports 43% +$17,102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +48.4% +34.3% 73% 68% +35.6%
≤30d 33 +31.5% +19.0% 67% 64% +2.9%
≤90d 33 +31.5% +19.0% 67% 64% +2.9%
all 33 +31.5% +19.0% 67% 64% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.0% 64% +2.9%
10% ← realistic here +7.6% 64% -6.9%
15% -2.8% 48% -15.9%
20% -12.3% 36% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$4,767) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,279 vs −$4,386 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$3,075
Realized+$13,159
Unrealized−$225
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$988
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage10d
Avg bet$5,165
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $3,300 $3,075 −$225 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $18,678 +$8,923 +48%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2,837 +$2,158 +76%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $6,502 +$1,587 +24%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,971 −$662 -22%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4,574 +$5,426 +119%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $3,956 +$3,544 +90%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $860 +$3,140 +365%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2,637 +$2,363 +90%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $8,412 +$2,488 +30%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,851 +$1,149 +62%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,177 +$3,823 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $4,767 +$3,551 +74%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8,077 +$3,860 +48%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $555 −$541 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3,398 +$102 +3%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3,827 +$1,173 +31%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $671 +$491 +73%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2,687 −$425 -16%
Gio Reyna: 1+ goals Jun 19 $1,334 −$1,306 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $2,032 −$1,996 -98%
Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots Jun 19 $107 −$104 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,314 +$4,436 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,383 +$1,617 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23,749 −$23,650 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $3,975 +$1,025 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $4,236 +$964 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,739 +$983 +36%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3,366 +$6,634 +197%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $15,525 −$15,300 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $3,530 −$307 -9%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,935 −$1,900 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $23,289 +$12,711 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,061 −$2,050 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $4,995 1h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $8,090 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $26 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $16 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $557 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $843 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $843 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $67 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $114 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $177 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $16 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $92 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $38 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $8 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $26 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $843 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $8 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $224 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $72 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $18 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $8 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $31 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $14 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $54 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,075.00 · official $3,225.00 · 198 history records