Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:31:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
44 0x4480…8c0e sports 566 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,313 (+10%) realized +$1,309 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%226W / 332L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$212
7 days+$527
14 days+$699
30 days+$940
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$389
other 26% +$396
crypto 20% +$128
world 13% +$362
culture 0% −$1
politics 0% −$33
tech 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +43.3% +29.7% 67% 56% +7.9%
≤30d 63 +5.3% -4.7% 49% 46% +9.0%
≤90d 280 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 41% +2.7%
all 558 -2.6% -11.9% 41% 39% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 39% -1.1%
10% -20.3% 37% -10.6%
15% -28.0% 35% -19.2%
20% -35.1% 31% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$11 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$1,309
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses226 / 332
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions8
Markets (closed)558 / 566
History coverage114d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 558 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 50¢ 50¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 23¢ 42¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+82%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 31¢ 55¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+79%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-9%)
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? No 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 315 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $202 +$106 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $602 +$61 +10%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $201 +$46 +23%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) Jun 25 $232 +$71 +31%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$73 +712%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$13 +124%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$9 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,003 +$96 +10%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $63 +$30 +48%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 21 $16 +$37 +226%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $243 +$70 +29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,003 +$120 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $72 +$65 +90%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots Jun 19 $62 −$61 -99%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$18 +172%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $43 +$62 +146%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $102 +$209 +204%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $20 +$18 +91%
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $10 +$11 +105%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$16 +52%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 12 $41 +$32 +79%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $18 +$4 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 09 $51 +$52 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $71 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $71 1h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $201 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 45h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 65¢ $202 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $10 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 20¢ $5 3d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 76¢ $232 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $20 5d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,003 5d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $31 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $31 6d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 58¢ $30 6d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $25 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 6d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $30 6d
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 30¢ $16 7d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 77¢ $243 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 8d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $72 8d
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots BUY Yes 66¢ $62 8d
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 49¢ $10 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 11d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.16 · official $210.16 (match) · 981 history records