Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4482…cd46 sports 495 markets active 9h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$172 (-1%) realized −$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate83%413W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$59
14 days+$60
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$8
crypto 29% −$211
weather 7% −$55
other 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -2.7% -12.0% 77% 42% -4.3%
≤30d 290 -0.7% -10.2% 83% 41% -11.1%
≤90d 495 -1.9% -11.3% 83% 29% -11.3%
all 495 -1.9% -11.3% 83% 29% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 29% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 10% -19.8%
15% -27.5% 4% -27.5%
20% -34.6% 2% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$16 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses413 / 82
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)495 / 495
History coverage52d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 495 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $50 +$11 +21%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $50 +$21 +42%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 −$5 -49%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $50 +$17 +34%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $50 +$11 +21%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $50 +$9 +18%
Rainbow Six Siege: Help Us LFO vs Can You Be My Enemy (BO1) - Asia Pac Jun 14 $5 −$2 -43%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $50 +$23 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $50 −$49 -99%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $50 +$9 +18%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $50 −$27 -55%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $50 +$15 +29%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $50 +$16 +32%
Rainbow Six Siege: My Queen vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group S Jun 13 $10 −$5 -48%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $50 +$14 +27%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Overwatch: Poker Face vs Falcons (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs Outlast (BO1) - North Americ Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 13 $50 −$18 -35%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $24 +$6 +27%
Rainbow Six Siege: Cloud9 vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North America League Jun 12 $47 +$8 +16%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $50 +$14 +27%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $5 +$1 +31%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $18 +$6 +35%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $14 −$3 -19%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $29 −$14 -48%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 11 $10 +$4 +38%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $14 −$3 -24%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $10 +$3 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 99¢ $10 8h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 95¢ $10 29h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 96¢ $10 32h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 82¢ $50 40h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 70¢ $50 46h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 1¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 42¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $10 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 74¢ $50 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Atlanta Dream 94¢ $10 2d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 96¢ $10 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOS 82¢ $50 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: Help Us LFO vs Can You Be My Enemy (BO1) - Asia Pac SELL Help Us LFO 55¢ $3 2d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 84¢ $50 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $50 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 77¢ $50 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P SELL Eintracht Spandau 35¢ $23 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Eintracht Spandau 75¢ $50 3d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 84¢ $50 3d
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 77¢ $50 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $50 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 78¢ $50 4d
Overwatch: Poker Face vs Falcons (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Falcons 98¢ $5 4d
Rainbow Six Siege: My Queen vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group S BUY My Queen 96¢ $5 4d
Rainbow Six Siege: My Queen vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group S BUY TYLOO 97¢ $5 4d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Golden State Valkyries 95¢ $5 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics SELL Washington Mystics 98¢ $5 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 94¢ $5 4d
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North BUY Shopify Rebellion 87¢ $5 4d
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs Outlast (BO1) - North Americ BUY Spacestation Gaming 94¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1616 history records