Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

44 0x4485…e73c other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$141 (+32%) realized +$142 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip

Net edge+28%after slip

Net WR91%break-even

Win rate91%10W / 1L

Drawdown14%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day8.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit39%portable

Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +91%

net ROI/market (all)+39.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+53.9%	+39.2%	91%	91%	+31.0%
≤30d	11	+53.9%	+39.2%	91%	91%	+31.0%
≤90d	11	+53.9%	+39.2%	91%	91%	+31.0%
all	11	+53.9%	+39.2%	91%	91%	+31.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+39.2%	91%	+31.0%
10%	+25.9%	91%	+18.4%
15%	+13.7%	73%	+7.0%
20%	+2.6%	45%	-3.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 38% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +54% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$20 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×8.33 per $1 lost it wins $8.33

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$69

Realized+$142

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)91%

Wins / losses10 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)11 / 18

History coverage2d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day8.4

Drawdown14%

Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Brazil	51¢	52¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	Over	42¢	44¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+4%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	No	24¢	20¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	+$9	+93%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$40	+$15	+38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$20	+$26	+129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	+$15	+73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	+$8	+42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$71	+$37	+52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$10	+$3	+32%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$10	+$17	+165%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$55	+$13	+23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$50	+$23	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN	BUY	33¢	$20	1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	BUY Brazil	51¢	$20	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$30	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	51¢	$10	2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Czechia (-1.5)	BUY	11¢	$10	7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	42¢	$10	10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY	28¢	$10	10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	24¢	$10	24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$40	32h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	43¢	$20	43h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$20	43h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	51¢	$20	43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$20	43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	75¢	$10	45h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	37¢	$10	45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$71	46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	81¢	$55	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.85 · official $88.85 · 28 history records