trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | -48.9% | -53.7% | 50% | 0% | -37.4% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -9.3% | -18.0% | 80% | 0% | -9.8% |
| all | 25 | -3.6% | -12.8% | 92% | 0% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.8% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -21.2% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -28.8% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -35.8% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $77 | $77 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 99¢ | 98¢ | $47 | $46 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 18¢ | 3¢ | $15 | $3 | −$12 (-82%) |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+36%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Jun 13 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 31 | $2,190 | −$5 | -0% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | May 07 | $39 | $0 | +1% |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Apr 18 | $293 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru | Apr 03 | $131 | $0 | +0% |
| Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Apr 03 | $19 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? | Apr 03 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Apr 03 | $293 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? | Apr 02 | $78 | $0 | +0% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Apr 02 | $28 | $0 | +1% |
| Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Mar 12 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Feb 27 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | Feb 27 | $117 | $0 | +0% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 27 | $153 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? | Feb 26 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Feb 26 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Binance be accused of insider trading? | Feb 25 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 24 | $70 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Feb 24 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | Feb 23 | $103 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | Feb 21 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? | Feb 20 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? | Feb 19 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly | Feb 18 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? | Feb 18 | $12 | $0 | +0% |