Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

44 0x4486…b087 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$133 · open +$119

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR5%break-even

Win rate95%18W / 1L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$472per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$628now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$82

7 days−$82

14 days−$82

30 days−$81

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +5%

net ROI/market (all)-9.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+0.5%	-9.0%	67%	33%	-14.3%
≤30d	7	+0.3%	-9.3%	86%	14%	-11.7%
≤90d	17	+0.3%	-9.3%	94%	6%	-10.3%
all	19	+0.5%	-9.0%	95%	5%	-9.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.0%	5%	-9.9%
10%	-17.7%	5%	-18.5%
15%	-25.7%	5%	-26.4%
20%	-33.0%	0%	-33.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 73% · top 2 88% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

94% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$588) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$234 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.84 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage

Net worth$628

Realized−$133

Unrealized+$119

Win rate (resolved)95%

Wins / losses18 / 1

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage99d

Avg bet$472

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	81¢	100¢	$509	$628	+$119 (+23%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$367	+$145	+40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$599	−$234	-39%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$594	+$6	+1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8?	Jun 09	$588	+$1	+0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026?	Jun 02	$271	$0	+0%
Trump out as President by May 31?	Jun 02	$322	$0	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 22?	May 25	$591	+$1	+0%
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun	May 10	$240	+$1	+0%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec	May 09	$350	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?	May 01	$291	$0	+0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April?	May 01	$300	$0	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 24?	Apr 25	$591	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 17?	Apr 18	$400	$0	+0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers	Apr 09	$587	+$3	+1%
Rockets vs. Suns	Apr 09	$581	+$6	+1%
Hawks vs. Magic	Apr 03	$580	+$1	+0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?	Apr 01	$580	+$1	+0%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner	Mar 20	$550	+$30	+5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 14?	Mar 14	$549	+$1	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	81¢	$512	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$367	23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	26¢	$365	23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$599	28h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	99¢	$594	41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8?	BUY No	100¢	$588	11d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$271	22d
Trump out as President by May 31?	BUY No	100¢	$322	22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 22?	BUY No	100¢	$591	29d
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec	BUY No	100¢	$350	43d
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun	BUY No	100¢	$240	43d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$291	52d
Will Solana dip to $40 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$300	52d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 24?	BUY Yes	100¢	$591	57d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 17?	BUY Yes	100¢	$400	64d
Hawks vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	99¢	$587	70d
Rockets vs. Suns	BUY Rockets	99¢	$581	71d
Hawks vs. Magic	BUY Hawks	100¢	$580	77d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?	BUY No	100¢	$580	86d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner	BUY Gen.G	95¢	$550	91d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 14?	BUY No	100¢	$549	98d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $628.36 · official $628.36 (match) · 42 history records