Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:28:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
44 0x4488…2d14 other 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$803 (+9%) realized +$743 · open +$60
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%81W / 89L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$576now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$458
7 days+$342
14 days+$529
30 days+$550
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$474
sports 24% +$323
crypto 2% −$53
world 2% +$56
politics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +18.6% +7.3% 63% 63% +0.6%
≤30d 50 +4.0% -5.9% 60% 60% +0.8%
≤90d 102 +9.2% -1.2% 52% 51% -1.5%
all 170 -2.6% -11.9% 48% 46% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 46% -1.0%
10% -20.3% 43% -10.4%
15% -28.0% 38% -19.1%
20% -35.1% 29% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$24 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$576
Realized+$743
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses81 / 89
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions6
Markets (closed)170 / 176
History coverage166d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $71 $232 +$162 (+229%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $263 $205 −$58 (-22%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $80 $112 +$32 (+41%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes $22 $17 −$5 (-22%)
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes $20 $9 −$11 (-56%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 14¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $85 +$26 +30%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $140 +$159 +114%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $302 +$77 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $256 +$195 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $623 −$536 -86%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $198 +$51 +26%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $39 +$17 +43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 −$21 -35%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $132 +$167 +126%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $285 −$19 -7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $69 +$33 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $47 +$53 +114%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $189 +$100 +53%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $79 −$59 -74%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $198 +$76 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $276 +$89 +32%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $83 −$47 -56%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 −$1 -1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$26 +52%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $99 +$42 +42%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $94 +$34 +36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $120 +$25 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$13 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $77 +$74 +96%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 09 $4 +$3 +86%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 08 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $98 +$10 +11%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $81 +$39 +48%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 06 $38 +$22 +58%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $29 +$20 +67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $50 +$48 +96%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $12 −$12 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $333 +$160 +48%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $64 +$27 +42%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 29 $270 −$110 -41%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4 +$1 +36%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $7 +$5 +73%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 23 $45 −$45 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $51 +$34 +67%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next May 23 $17 −$6 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $110 26m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $300 26m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 46¢ $140 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $85 6h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 100¢ $379 20h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $93 21h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 35h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 79¢ $302 35h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $256 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $49 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $248 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $39 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 39¢ $40 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $198 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $201 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $136 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $193 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 44¢ $132 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $131 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $99 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $85 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $69 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $186 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 99¢ $289 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $575.61 · official $575.69 (match) · 419 history records