Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x4488…e319
sports · 229 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$109,482 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$113,134 · open +$9,649
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$283,852
Realized+$113,134
Unrealized+$9,649
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses125 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$3,816
Open positions17
Markets (closed)215 / 229
Avg bet$6,763
Trades / day284.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 17 History 215 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$536
7 days−$14,012
14 days+$113,134
30 days+$113,134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 90¢ 97¢ $87,917 $94,929 +$7,012 (+8%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $58,588 $62,354 +$3,766 (+6%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 84¢ 88¢ $33,539 $34,937 +$1,397 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $28,000 $26,125 −$1,875 (-7%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $24,801 $24,327 −$474 (-2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $21,000 $21,875 +$875 (+4%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 98¢ $4,855 $4,925 +$70 (+1%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 72¢ 57¢ $5,377 $4,312 −$1,065 (-20%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 81¢ 98¢ $3,306 $4,005 +$700 (+21%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 71¢ 57¢ $4,469 $3,565 −$905 (-20%)
Will Al Lawson win the Tallahassee mayoral election? No 90¢ 98¢ $1,486 $1,614 +$128 (+9%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 92¢ 99¢ $381 $408 +$27 (+7%)
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $312 $313 +$0 (+0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $142 $140 −$1 (-1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 14¢ 9¢ $26 $17 −$10 (-37%)
Will Gary Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+114%)
Will Nick Albares be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $467 +$3 +1%
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $295 +$9 +3%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $19,117 −$1,050 -6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4,374 −$4,374 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3,770 +$6,230 +165%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $25 +$120 +482%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1,470 +$1,530 +104%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $1,410 +$1,590 +113%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $1,522 +$1,478 +97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2,560 +$2,440 +95%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $2,527 +$2,473 +98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,146 −$1,146 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $915 −$915 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $1,425 −$1,425 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2,650 −$2,650 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2,550 −$2,550 -100%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $402 +$8 +2%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $1,309 +$59 +4%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $353 +$7 +2%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $186 +$3 +2%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $226 +$4 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $744 +$584 +78%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1,419 +$1,527 +108%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 10 $1,900 +$3,100 +163%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $2,487 +$2,513 +101%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $2,880 +$3,120 +108%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 10 $105 −$105 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2,227 −$2,227 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $2,416 −$2,416 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $2,637 −$2,637 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $3,123 −$3,123 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $2,100 +$2,900 +138%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $2,387 +$2,613 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $2,571 +$2,429 +94%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 09 $1,582 −$1,582 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $1,191 −$1,191 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $2,404 −$2,404 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $2,350 −$2,350 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $2,352 −$2,352 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $3,165 −$3,165 -100%
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? Jun 08 $5,335 −$26 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $2,737 −$2,737 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $2,538 −$2,538 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $4,675 +$295 +6%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $3,687 +$75 +2%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $94 +$71 +75%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $159 +$166 +104%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 08 $154 +$266 +173%
Spread: Gibraltar (-1.5) Jun 08 $712 +$537 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 53% +$31,920
crypto 25% +$2,464
sports 16% −$40,656
other 3% +$21,025
world 2% +$108,030
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 79¢ $6 7m
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 79¢ $4 7m
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 79¢ $51 7m
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 77¢ $206 7m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $160 16m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 16m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $434 16m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $182 16m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,444 16m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 16m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 16m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $182 16m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $426 16m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $182 17m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $423 17m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 24¢ $1,200 17m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $630 17m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 17m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 17m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $39 17m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 17m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 23¢ $37 17m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 17m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 17m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 23¢ $1,150 19m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,513 19m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $3,097 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 79¢ $5,911 4h
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 85¢ $33 4h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +1.2% -8.5% 52% 39% -15.6%
≤30d 215 +16.6% +5.5% 58% 33% -3.7%
≤90d 215 +16.6% +5.5% 58% 33% -3.7%
all 215 +16.6% +5.5% 58% 33% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover284.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.5% 33% -3.7%
10% -4.6% 32% -12.9%
15% ← realistic here -13.9% 29% -21.3%
20% -22.3% 28% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $283,852.13 · official $283,852.13 (match) · 3500 history records