Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:17:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
44 0x4489…923c sports 12 markets active 8h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$425 (+14%) realized +$352 · open +$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$772now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$332
other 21% +$29
crypto 4% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.8% -16.6% 43% 43% +4.1%
≤30d 7 -7.8% -16.6% 43% 43% +4.1%
≤90d 7 -7.8% -16.6% 43% 43% +4.1%
all 7 -7.8% -16.6% 43% 43% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 43% +4.1%
10% -24.5% 43% -5.8%
15% -31.8% 43% -14.9%
20% -38.5% 43% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$437 vs −$245 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$772
Realized+$352
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $229 +$29 (+15%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $100 $167 +$67 (+67%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $144 −$56 (-28%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $100 $144 +$44 (+44%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $204 +$296 +146%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $508 +$579 +114%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $507 +$436 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $558 −$550 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $203 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 7h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $204 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $508 8h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $204 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 31h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $507 40h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $507 40h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 40h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $772.50 · official $772.50 (match) · 19 history records