Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x448f…fcc3
other · 117 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$435 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$423 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,657
Realized+$423
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses21 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage119d
Avg bet$994
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 1 History 116 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$21
30 days+$861
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,658 $1,657 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,649 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,659 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $2,272 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,173 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,610 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $1,676 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,777 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 04 $386 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 04 $747 +$1 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $2,119 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,321 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $601 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,006 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,850 −$3 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $1,510 −$2 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 19 $676 +$896 +133%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,651 −$3 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,890 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,088 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,011 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,733 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $3,288 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $2,100 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,210 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $3,866 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $2,233 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,651 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,403 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $836 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1,818 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,324 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 10 $2,287 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 41% −$52
other 38% −$65
sports 12% +$549
world 2% −$3
culture 2% −$6
economics 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,659 1h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,646 24h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,649 25h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,656 26h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,659 28h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,683 30h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,686 32h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,646 44h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,648 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,607 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,610 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,613 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,615 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $748 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $749 9d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,673 9d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,676 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,675 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,678 10d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $564 10d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $565 10d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $832 14d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $833 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $811 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $812 14d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $704 17d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $705 17d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $586 17d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $586 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $707 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 +6.2% -3.9% 14% 5% -6.8%
≤90d 85 -10.7% -19.2% 11% 6% -9.4%
all 116 -4.6% -13.7% 18% 12% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 12% -9.2%
10% -22.0% 12% -17.9%
15% -29.5% 10% -25.8%
20% -36.4% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,657.28 · official $1,657.28 (match) · 413 history records