Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:58:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4490…b480 crypto 1392 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (141 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$133 (-4%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%605W / 722L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day141.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$155
7 days−$152
14 days−$144
30 days−$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$72
world 13% −$4
sports 6% +$5
politics 6% −$23
culture 0% $0
other 0% +$1
weather 0% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (141 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 374 -17.8% -25.6% 41% 36% -30.9%
≤30d 1327 -9.9% -18.5% 46% 38% -17.2%
≤90d 1327 -9.9% -18.5% 46% 38% -17.2%
all 1327 -9.9% -18.5% 46% 38% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover141.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 38% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 31% -25.1%
15% -33.4% 24% -32.3%
20% -40.0% 18% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses605 / 722
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1327 / 1392
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day141.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1327 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $3 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records