Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:05:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
44 0x4492…cad8 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$413 (+6%) realized +$413 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 35L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$358
7 days+$358
14 days+$284
30 days+$353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$536
tech 20% −$85
sports 1% −$35
politics 1% −$12
other 1% −$46
culture 0% −$20
world 0% +$16
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -7.4% -16.2% 52% 48% -3.1%
≤30d 52 -16.6% -24.6% 33% 31% -3.9%
≤90d 52 -16.6% -24.6% 33% 31% -3.9%
all 52 -16.6% -24.6% 33% 31% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 31% -3.9%
10% -31.8% 23% -13.1%
15% -38.4% 21% -21.5%
20% -44.4% 17% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$35 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$413
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 35
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage16d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $103 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $103 −$76 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $310 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $514 +$70 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $485 +$105 +22%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 28 $789 −$169 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $380 +$82 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $153 −$50 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $206 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $336 −$156 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $311 +$309 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $516 −$173 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $129 +$71 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $463 +$226 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$20 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $206 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $248 +$190 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $502 −$99 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $57 +$37 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $158 +$75 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $132 +$40 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $67 +$67 +100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 27 $167 −$32 -19%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by June 30? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 17 $20 −$6 -32%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 17 $67 −$4 -6%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 15 $70 −$68 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$18 +366%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 14 $92 −$8 -8%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $31 −$4 -12%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $31 −$2 -7%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? Jun 13 $26 −$2 -8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 13 $51 −$16 -32%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 13 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$17 -56%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $183 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $461 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 60¢ $386 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 231 history records