Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:53:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4495…e6d7 crypto 199 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$531 (-3%) realized −$555 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate61%121W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$15
14 days−$206
30 days−$847
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$183
crypto 34% −$546
other 20% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -7.3% -16.1% 53% 47% -10.1%
≤30d 197 -7.5% -16.3% 61% 53% -14.4%
≤90d 197 -7.5% -16.3% 61% 53% -14.4%
all 197 -7.5% -16.3% 61% 53% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 53% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 31% -22.6%
15% -31.6% 18% -30.1%
20% -38.3% 10% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$49 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$555
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses121 / 76
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions1
Markets (closed)197 / 199
History coverage25d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 53¢ 94¢ $31 $56 +$24 (+77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $68 −$37 -54%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $100 −$35 -35%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $243 −$142 -58%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $74 −$64 -87%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $128 +$70 +55%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $182 +$134 +74%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $221 +$118 +54%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $137 +$82 +60%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $99 +$40 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +72%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $232 −$224 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $179 +$57 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $76 +$101 +134%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $204 −$131 -64%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $199 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $222 +$75 +34%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $161 +$63 +39%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $135 +$26 +20%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $99 +$35 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $28 +$14 +51%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $12 +$17 +143%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 11 $299 −$287 -96%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $15 −$6 -41%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $63 −$49 -77%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $50 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 01 $51 −$34 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 01 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 01 $27 +$17 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 01 $30 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 01 $77 −$49 -63%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $209 −$153 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 01 $22 −$17 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 01 $59 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 01 $22 −$12 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 01 $37 +$15 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $28 +$32 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 01 $69 −$34 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 01 $46 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 01 $101 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 01 $75 +$24 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 01 $105 −$50 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 01 $21 +$3 +13%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $127 +$94 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $32 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 27¢ $31 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $0 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $67 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 33¢ $65 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $100 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 32¢ $102 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $243 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 5¢ $10 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 37¢ $47 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 37¢ $9 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 37¢ $6 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 37¢ $6 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 37¢ $6 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $128 30h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $316 32h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $177 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $5 33h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 81¢ $177 46h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 81¢ $40 46h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 81¢ $92 46h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 81¢ $9 46h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 81¢ $20 46h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 81¢ $1 46h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 52¢ $221 47h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $219 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $137 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 99¢ $139 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $99 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.62 · official $55.62 (match) · 664 history records