Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:59:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4495…7a0e world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate69%20W / 9L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$4
other 15% +$1
finance 5% $0
sports 4% +$1
weather 3% $0
crypto 1% −$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 16 +0.4% -9.2% 56% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 16 +0.4% -9.2% 56% 6% -8.9%
all 29 -2.2% -11.5% 69% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 3% -9.1%
10% -20.0% 0% -17.8%
15% -27.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses20 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage478d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 70¢ 67¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $48 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $109 +$3 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $75 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $41 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $14 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $76 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $39 −$2 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $51 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $26 +$4 +14%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 22 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $12 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 12 $14 $0 +3%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 12 $15 $0 +1%
Arizona State vs. Arizona Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February Mar 04 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $43 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $29 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $29 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $39 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $39 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $1 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $6 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 12¢ $8 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $6 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $23 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $5 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $29 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $37 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $35 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $40 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 74¢ $40 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $39 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $14 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $40 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $37 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.54 · official $42.12 (match) · 88 history records