Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:24:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x44a1…bd21
sports · 86 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$13,275 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$37,999 · open −$25,708
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$145,411
Realized+$37,999
Unrealized−$25,708
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses40 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$2,424
Open positions28
Markets (closed)67 / 86
Avg bet$7,688
Trades / day748.9
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 28 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16,658
7 days+$37,999
14 days+$37,999
30 days+$37,999
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? No 100¢ 100¢ $41,958 $42,000 +$42 (+0%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Yes 91¢ 36¢ $47,630 $19,077 −$28,553 (-60%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $17,494 $17,536 +$41 (+0%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $9,998 $10,008 +$10 (+0%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $9,900 $10,000 +$100 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $8,273 $8,137 −$136 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4,680 $5,340 +$660 (+14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $4,790 $5,215 +$425 (+9%)
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 93¢ 95¢ $4,200 $4,279 +$79 (+2%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 75¢ 94¢ $3,388 $4,239 +$850 (+25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $2,490 $2,565 +$75 (+3%)
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 97¢ 98¢ $2,439 $2,467 +$28 (+1%)
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,121 $2,205 +$85 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2,347 $2,194 −$152 (-6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,700 $2,050 +$350 (+21%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $1,500 +$500 (+50%)
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 87¢ 97¢ $1,072 $1,194 +$122 (+11%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Under 9¢ 10¢ $900 $950 +$50 (+6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $880 $920 +$40 (+5%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $700 $675 −$25 (-4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $532 $580 +$48 (+9%)
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 80¢ 83¢ $438 $455 +$17 (+4%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $360 $420 +$60 (+17%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 38¢ $370 $385 +$15 (+4%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $400 $350 −$50 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $2,500 +$156 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $42,082 −$124 -0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $9,998 +$10 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $9,900 +$100 +1%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $44,178 −$9,044 -20%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3,624 −$124 -3%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3,781 −$1,782 -47%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,023 +$180 +18%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $9,261 −$261 -3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $72,340 −$542 -1%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5,089 −$364 -7%
Hapoel Holon BC vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 10 $899 +$17 +2%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $2,500 +$2,602 +104%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 10 $30,885 +$87 +0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $820 −$820 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $2,500 +$2,935 +117%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $17,780 +$18 +0%
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan Jun 10 $31,103 +$91 +0%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $1,257 $0 +0%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $17,847 +$18 +0%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $32,705 +$26 +0%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 10 $6,665 +$7 +0%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $702 +$1 +0%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $715 +$7 +1%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1,157 +$4 +0%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2,747 +$3 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3,681 +$155 +4%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $6,763 +$7 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,433 −$40 -3%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You Jun 09 $300 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 09 $4,900 +$100 +2%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $16 $0 +1%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Ella McDonald Jun 09 $1,038 +$10 +1%
Modena: Victoria Bosio vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 09 $1,918 +$2 +0%
Will Philippines vs. Myanmar end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $1,735 +$18 +1%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $7,285 −$8 -0%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $3,842 +$158 +4%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 09 $14,107 +$14 +0%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $322 +$6 +2%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 09 $9,900 +$100 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,680 +$20 +1%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $3,024 −$29 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 58% +$37,914
other 35% −$31,957
world 5% +$3,469
crypto 1% +$1,987
politics 1% +$878
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 95¢ $474 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $36 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $1 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $144 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $1 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $0 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $1 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $0 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $78 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $58 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $21 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $1 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $558 2h
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 94¢ $472 3h
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 94¢ $472 3h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $13 4h
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 94¢ $47 4h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 51¢ $8 4h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $294 4h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $59 4h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 51¢ $5 4h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 51¢ $43 4h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 51¢ $2 4h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 51¢ $55 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 100¢ $1,296 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 100¢ $1,998 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 100¢ $999 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 100¢ $7 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 100¢ $3 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 100¢ $198 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -17.0% -24.9% 60% 10% -3.4%
≤30d 67 -17.0% -24.9% 60% 10% -3.4%
≤90d 67 -17.0% -24.9% 60% 10% -3.4%
all 67 -17.0% -24.9% 60% 10% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover748.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.9% 10% -3.4%
10% -32.1% 9% -12.6%
15% ← realistic here -38.7% 7% -21.1%
20% -44.7% 7% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145,411.33 · official $145,411.45 (match) · 3500 history records