Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44a2…0fab sports 6 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-71%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$104
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-62.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -58.9% -62.8% 33% 17% -74.2%
≤30d 6 -58.9% -62.8% 33% 17% -74.2%
≤90d 6 -58.9% -62.8% 33% 17% -74.2%
all 6 -58.9% -62.8% 33% 17% -74.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.8% 17% -74.2%
10% -66.4% 17% -76.7%
15% -69.6% 17% -78.9%
20% -72.6% 0% -81.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$29 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $25 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $41 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 33h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 40h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $25 40h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $25 40h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 69¢ $25 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records