Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:50:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44a3…c768 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-4%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%18W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -2.0% -11.3% 95% 5% -14.9%
≤30d 19 -2.0% -11.3% 95% 5% -14.9%
≤90d 19 -2.0% -11.3% 95% 5% -14.9%
all 19 -2.0% -11.3% 95% 5% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 5% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 0% -23.0%
15% -27.5% 0% -30.4%
20% -34.6% 0% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses18 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 99¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.52 (match) · 39 history records