Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44aa…5a16 crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$109 (-4%) realized −$182 · open +$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%28W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$474
7 days+$344
14 days+$344
30 days+$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$273
other 39% +$173
sports 19% +$244
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +22.1% +10.5% 60% 40% +20.1%
≤30d 10 +22.1% +10.5% 60% 40% +20.1%
≤90d 53 -18.6% -26.4% 53% 49% -6.6%
all 53 -18.6% -26.4% 53% 49% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 49% -6.6%
10% -33.4% 19% -15.5%
15% -39.9% 17% -23.7%
20% -45.8% 15% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$27 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized−$182
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses28 / 25
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)53 / 58
History coverage45d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $100 $138 +$38 (+38%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $81 $86 +$5 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$310 +303%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$19 +18%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 +$7 +7%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$10 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$26 -26%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$10 -10%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $95 −$94 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 07 $26 −$22 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 07 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 07 $26 +$5 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 07 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 07 $26 −$23 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 07 $26 +$5 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 07 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 07 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 07 $26 +$5 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 07 $26 +$5 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 07 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 07 $26 −$21 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 07 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 07 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 07 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 07 $26 −$21 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 07 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 06 $26 +$5 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 06 $26 +$5 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 06 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 06 $25 +$4 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 06 $26 +$5 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 06 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 06 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 06 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 06 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 04 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 04 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 04 $31 +$25 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 04 $31 +$29 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 04 $31 +$26 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 87¢ $413 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $101 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $121 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 24h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $110 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 62¢ $111 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 29h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $101 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $76 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $93 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $95 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $84 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $3 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $2 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $20 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $9 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.46 · official $554.46 (match) · 168 history records