Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:08:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44aa…d1d5 sports 356 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,385 (-2%) realized −$1,014 · open −$1,371
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate47%155W / 176L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day40.8pace
Fees−$1,814est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$3,234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$512
7 days+$350
14 days+$42
30 days+$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$1,769
other 13% −$1,666
world 11% +$646
politics 9% −$235
finance 2% −$295
crypto 1% −$506
economics 1% −$75
culture 0% +$28
tech 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +1.1% -8.5% 60% 57% +1.5%
≤30d 117 -8.8% -17.4% 46% 31% -8.2%
≤90d 331 -2.9% -12.1% 47% 21% -11.7%
all 331 -2.9% -12.1% 47% 21% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 21% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 15% -20.1%
15% -28.2% 13% -27.8%
20% -35.3% 11% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$49 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$3,234
Realized−$1,014
Unrealized−$1,371
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses155 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$1,814
Open positions51
Markets (closed)331 / 356
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$309
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 331 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 74¢ 46¢ $1,068 $660 −$408 (-38%)
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes 78¢ 84¢ $349 $375 +$26 (+7%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 45¢ 22¢ $486 $243 −$242 (-50%)
Will Rihanna release an album in 2026? No 65¢ 76¢ $201 $237 +$36 (+18%)
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? Yes 38¢ 28¢ $277 $208 −$69 (-25%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 86¢ 99¢ $172 $199 +$27 (+16%)
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? $3,000 53¢ 45¢ $208 $177 −$31 (-15%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $138 $153 +$15 (+11%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No 42¢ 46¢ $124 $138 +$13 (+11%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 64¢ 38¢ $194 $116 −$78 (-40%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat? No 63¢ 64¢ $100 $102 +$3 (+3%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $95 $100 +$4 (+4%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $135 $92 −$42 (-31%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 57¢ 57¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 34¢ 36¢ $68 $73 +$5 (+7%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026? No 10¢ 12¢ $47 $55 +$8 (+16%)
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $45 $48 +$2 (+5%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 24¢ 17¢ $65 $46 −$19 (-29%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $60 $45 −$15 (-25%)
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? Yes $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027? Yes 12¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-60%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-42%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ $47 $9 −$37 (-80%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 34¢ $134 $6 −$128 (-95%)
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 10¢ $77 $3 −$74 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $81 −$16 -20%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $51 +$36 +70%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $61 +$93 +152%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $76 +$65 +86%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $67 +$33 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $69 +$51 +73%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $94 +$56 +60%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $43 −$42 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $43 −$42 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $91 +$59 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $94 +$56 +60%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $65 +$35 +55%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $129 +$121 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $444 +$222 +50%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $100 +$11 +11%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $230 +$20 +9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 15 $112 +$20 +18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $73 +$77 +105%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $167 +$133 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $69 +$31 +46%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 14 $503 +$6 +1%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $54 +$46 +85%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $69 +$31 +45%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $40 +$60 +150%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 06 $1,046 +$397 +38%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 05 $775 +$7 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $302 +$122 +40%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $984 +$91 +9%
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 04 $925 −$57 -6%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $142 +$42 +30%
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Jun 04 $334 +$21 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $811 −$474 -58%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 01 $406 −$28 -7%
Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31? Jun 01 $60 −$37 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 44¢ $65 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $81 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND U BUY 12¢ $26 8h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $86 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $101 13h
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $51 23h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $61 23h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 23h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $1 23h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $18 23h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $6 23h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $1 23h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $4 23h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $23 23h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $2 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $10 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $76 24h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $43 26h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $43 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $94 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $67 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $69 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $91 29h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $94 29h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $78 46h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $52 46h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $65 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $330 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $444 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,234.16 · official $3,234.24 (match) · 3500 history records