Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:21:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44ab…7cec other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-2%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$2
sports 25% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -8.1% -16.8% 0% 0% -16.2%
≤90d 3 -8.1% -16.8% 0% 0% -16.2%
all 3 -8.1% -16.8% 0% 0% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 0% -16.2%
10% -24.8% 0% -24.2%
15% -32.1% 0% -31.5%
20% -38.7% 0% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)3 / 11
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 09 $7 −$1 -10%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 09 $7 −$1 -13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $10 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 69¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 8d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.70 · official $23.70 (match) · 14 history records