Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44ac…dc9e crypto 1207 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,949 (-2%) realized −$8,812 · open −$137
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate77%893W / 272L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$433per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Fees−$407est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$2,013
14 days−$1,608
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% −$2,502
other 33% −$602
sports 28% −$7,337
politics 2% +$528
world 0% +$1
finance 0% +$20
weather 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +143.2% +120.0% 80% 40% -10.0%
≤30d 154 +23.7% +11.9% 69% 31% -6.8%
≤90d 907 +6.7% -3.4% 77% 24% -9.8%
all 1165 +5.3% -4.8% 77% 23% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 23% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 15% -18.4%
15% -22.2% 11% -26.3%
20% -29.8% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$665) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$113 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$1,584
Realized−$8,812
Unrealized−$137
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses893 / 272
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$407
Open positions40
Markets (closed)1165 / 1207
History coverage106d
Avg bet$433
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 1165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $600 $567 −$33 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $170 $183 +$13 (+8%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $165 $115 −$50 (-30%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $66 $90 +$24 (+36%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $90 $87 −$3 (-3%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes $121 $75 −$46 (-38%)
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $46 $66 +$20 (+44%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $68 $51 −$17 (-25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $36 $42 +$6 (+18%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $29 −$11 (-27%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $26 −$4 (-15%)
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+13%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 75¢ 83¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $26 $21 −$5 (-18%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 70¢ 99¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+40%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $17 +$7 (+69%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $14 −$11 (-42%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Betmoar FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 73¢ 81¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 95¢ 91¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 74¢ 57¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 79¢ 89¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 216 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $701 +$42 +6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $504 +$200 +40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2,003 −$1,997 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,120 +$462 +41%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,023 +$111 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,001 +$41 +4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $1,703 +$105 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,007 −$1,005 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +102%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 12 $101 +$23 +23%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $207 +$72 +35%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$8 +16%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 −$1 -14%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $2,001 +$35 +2%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2,012 +$78 +4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2,057 +$89 +4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2,009 +$123 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +13%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $1 $0 +20%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $1 $0 +11%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2,001 +$18 +1%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $2,002 +$81 +4%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +11%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $2,001 +$35 +2%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $1,007 +$61 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $1 $0 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $1 $0 +31%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $56 −$55 -99%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Alina Charaeva Jun 04 $11 −$11 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $2,015 +$194 +10%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $2,107 +$167 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $607 17m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $741 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $601 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $504 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under $3 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $2,003 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will England vs. Croatia end BUY $5 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $5 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,903 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $1,001 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 94¢ $1,703 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,001 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 20¢ $5 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,584.30 · official $1,584.08 (match) · 3263 history records