Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:42:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44ad…8186 crypto 705 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,918 (-5%) realized −$2,911 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%317W / 387L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$82
14 days−$621
30 days−$760
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$3,750
other 8% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -15.5% -23.5% 44% 41% -12.3%
≤30d 81 -12.4% -20.8% 42% 41% -16.1%
≤90d 423 -4.0% -13.1% 41% 40% -14.9%
all 704 +0.3% -9.3% 45% 44% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 44% -15.0%
10% -18.0% 43% -23.1%
15% -25.9% 41% -30.5%
20% -33.2% 39% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$74 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$2,911
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses317 / 387
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)704 / 705
History coverage125d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 704 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Down 34¢ 28¢ $48 $40 −$7 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 361 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $164 −$133 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$52 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $78 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$16 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $81 −$77 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$45 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $168 +$163 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $84 +$84 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$34 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$28 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $205 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $204 +$82 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$115 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$52 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $372 +$107 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $129 +$243 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$81 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $117 −$33 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$32 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $204 −$197 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $105 −$87 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $156 +$188 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $187 +$177 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $73 −$51 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $157 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $141 −$136 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $222 +$315 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $294 −$278 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $261 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $156 +$172 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $208 −$200 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $50 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $164 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $101 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $49 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $58 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $28 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $28 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $50 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $50 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $32 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $47 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $81 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $76 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $31 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $168 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $168 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $84 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $84 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $50 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $30 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $51 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $100 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $205 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.25 · official $51.56 · 1522 history records