Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
44 0x44b0…7398 other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$279 (+56%) realized +$92 · open +$187
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +56% what you keep after slip
Net edge+56%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$197
sports 32% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+61.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +78.9% +61.8% 67% 67% +29.5%
≤30d 3 +78.9% +61.8% 67% 67% +29.5%
≤90d 3 +78.9% +61.8% 67% 67% +29.5%
all 3 +78.9% +61.8% 67% 67% +29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.8% 67% +29.5%
10% +46.3% 67% +17.1%
15% +32.2% 67% +5.8%
20% +19.2% 67% -4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$75 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$459
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$187
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 31¢ 74¢ $150 $360 +$210 (+140%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 20¢ $39 $17 −$22 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $33 +$85 +260%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $77 −$75 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $110 +$84 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 8m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 8m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 48m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 24¢ $77 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 45¢ $40 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 31¢ $154 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $110 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.77 · official $458.77 (match) · 10 history records