Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:40:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44b8…cb3c politics 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 410d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$63 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate33%28W / 57L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$13
crypto 21% +$6
politics 19% −$16
economics 16% −$2
world 3% −$22
sports 1% −$21
tech 1% +$9
finance 1% −$7
culture 1% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -10.8% -19.3% 0% 0% -15.7%
≤30d 13 -10.8% -19.3% 0% 0% -15.7%
≤90d 43 -16.6% -24.5% 5% 2% -22.9%
all 85 -5.8% -14.8% 33% 13% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 13% -10.0%
10% -22.9% 8% -18.6%
15% -30.4% 7% -26.5%
20% -37.2% 6% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

410d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses28 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)85 / 87
History coverage410d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 90¢ 80¢ $45 $40 −$5 (-11%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $11 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 21 $19 −$1 -4%
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027? Jun 21 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ? Jun 21 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 21 $37 −$3 -7%
Will Starmer say "NHS" 3+ times during the next PMQ? Jun 21 $10 $0 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $16 −$1 -10%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 21 $11 $0 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $20 $0 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $8 −$4 -56%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $4 $0 -11%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 17 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May? May 16 $24 −$17 -70%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $12 −$2 -19%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16? May 15 $25 $0 -2%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May? May 15 $28 −$4 -14%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May? May 15 $30 −$2 -8%
Will John Fleming finish first in the first round of the Louisiana Rep May 15 $23 $0 -1%
Will Julia Letlow finish first in the first round of the Louisiana Rep May 15 $4 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $2 −$1 -40%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 23m a May 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 23m May 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $38 −$2 -5%
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1 $0 -29%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $19 $0 -2%
Will NVIDIA Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 75% and 76%? May 15 $8 −$2 -23%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? May 15 $35 −$2 -5%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 15 $9 $0 -2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? May 15 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $23 −$1 -5%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $6 −$2 -32%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $19 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 15 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $2 $0 +12%
Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1 $0 -19%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $4 $0 -6%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $16 −$1 -3%
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $3 −$1 -26%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? May 15 $14 −$1 -6%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 11 $86 −$4 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 11 $25 −$4 -17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 11 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 11 $6 $0 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 11 $118 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 11 $56 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Down 10¢ $2 4m
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 13¢ $3 4m
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027? SELL No 45¢ $22 4m
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027? BUY No 46¢ $23 44m
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 BUY No 90¢ $45 50m
Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 57m
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 55¢ $7 1h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 1h
Will Starmer say "NHS" 3+ times during the next PMQ? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 1h
Will Starmer say "NHS" 3+ times during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 14¢ $7 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 56¢ $28 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 15¢ $8 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 58¢ $29 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL Yes 44¢ $11 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 40¢ $17 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 40¢ $18 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 44¢ $11 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 84¢ $17 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 82¢ $41 1h
Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 84¢ $17 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 84¢ $42 1h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 56¢ $27 2h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 41¢ $2 2h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.75 · official $47.75 (match) · 237 history records