Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:41:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
44 0x44b9…b0e7 world 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+1%) realized +$70 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate44%45W / 58L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$19
14 days+$36
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$71
other 31% +$10
sports 13% −$4
politics 1% +$3
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.6% -8.1% 40% 10% -8.7%
≤30d 35 +57.7% +42.7% 40% 6% -8.7%
≤90d 41 +49.2% +35.0% 37% 5% -9.1%
all 103 +20.4% +8.9% 44% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 7% -9.0%
10% -1.5% 6% -17.7%
15% -11.0% 4% -25.7%
20% -19.7% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses45 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage455d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $197 $201 +$4 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $236 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $79 +$11 +14%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $210 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $37 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $210 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $148 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $203 −$6 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $434 −$2 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $422 +$8 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $158 +$8 +5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $188 +$17 +9%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $157 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $207 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $417 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $343 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $188 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $323 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $569 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $552 −$2 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $115 +$3 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $395 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $154 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $188 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $309 +$18 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $188 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $190 +$18 +9%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $191 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $160 −$4 -3%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $903 +$1 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $996 −$3 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,812 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jan 15 $3 $0 +2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $20 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? May 27 $2 $0 -20%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 27 $20 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $163 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $34 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $159 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $62 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $137 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $90 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $79 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $41 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $169 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $210 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $37 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $19 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $37 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $112 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $98 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $65 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $145 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $121 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $27 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $148 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $79 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $83 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.93 · official $200.95 (match) · 383 history records