Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x44be…76b1
crypto · 720 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$172 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$156 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$90
Realized−$156
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses473 / 281
Open positions7
Markets (closed)754 / 720
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day619.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 7 History 754 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days−$156
14 days−$156
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 62¢ $41 $61 +$20 (+48%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 8¢ $39 $14 −$26 (-66%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $8 $3 −$6 (-68%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-67%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$15 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$7 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$7 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$17 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$15 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$19 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$15 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% −$48
other 7% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 754 -11.8% -20.2% 63% 13% -11.6%
≤30d 754 -11.8% -20.2% 63% 13% -11.6%
≤90d 754 -11.8% -20.2% 63% 13% -11.6%
all 754 -11.8% -20.2% 63% 13% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover619.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 13% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 10% -20.1%
15% -34.8% 9% -27.8%
20% -41.2% 7% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.22 · official $90.22 (match) · 3500 history records