Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x44c7…9bde
sports · 1085 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$3,299 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,299 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized+$3,299
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses623 / 459
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1082 / 1085
History coverage233d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 2 History 1082 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$186
14 days+$369
30 days+$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner T1 71¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $67 +$29 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$44 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $54 +$7 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $124 +$19 +15%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $113 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $54 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $56 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $91 +$20 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $79 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $87 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $73 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $59 +$13 +23%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $84 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $72 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$16 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $128 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $28 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $64 +$43 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $49 +$19 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $84 −$51 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $53 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $54 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $55 +$43 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $89 −$30 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 59% +$1,886
crypto 22% −$107
other 18% +$1,522
politics 1% −$23
world 0% +$28
weather 0% −$7
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $30 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $37 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 32¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +1.7% -8.0% 81% 38% -4.8%
≤30d 280 +3.6% -6.3% 80% 38% -3.7%
≤90d 660 -10.7% -19.2% 58% 37% -13.6%
all 1082 +1.7% -7.9% 58% 43% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 43% +0.9%
10% -16.8% 35% -8.8%
15% -24.8% 26% -17.6%
20% -32.2% 21% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.79 · official $10.79 (match) · 3500 history records