Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:29:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
44 0x44c9…f427 crypto 205 markets active 2h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+0%) realized +$62 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%185W / 16L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$6
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$60
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 30 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 67 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 201 -0.4% -9.8% 92% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×41.59 per $1 lost it wins $41.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$359
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses185 / 16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)201 / 205
History coverage182d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $211 $212 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 27? No 100¢ 99¢ $86 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 27? No 100¢ 99¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 24? Jun 24 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 24? Jun 24 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 23? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on June 22? Jun 22 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 22? Jun 22 $65 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 22? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 22? Jun 22 $115 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 21? Jun 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 20? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 18? Jun 18 $329 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 17? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 16? Jun 16 $327 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 14? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 13? Jun 13 $329 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 12? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 11? Jun 11 $328 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $353 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $353 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $353 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $353 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 4? Jun 04 $352 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 3? Jun 04 $352 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $352 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $333 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 30? May 30 $333 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 28? May 28 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 28? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on May 27? May 28 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 27? May 27 $332 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? May 25 $332 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 24? May 24 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 23? May 24 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 22? May 22 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $331 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 19? May 19 $331 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on May 15? May 15 $330 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 9? May 09 $348 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on May 6? May 06 $347 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $347 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 02 $347 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $347 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 25? Apr 25 $346 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 23? Apr 23 $346 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 20? Apr 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 April 13-19? Apr 20 $346 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $345 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 16? Apr 16 $345 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 15? Apr 16 $345 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14? Apr 15 $344 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $73 1h
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $23 25h
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $211 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $63 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $22 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $7 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $65 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $115 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $149 6d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $7 7d
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $22 7d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $329 8d
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $28 10d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $327 11d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $27 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $329 13d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $26 16d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $328 16d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $353 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $353 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $353 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $353 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $352 20d
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $352 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $352 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $333 24d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $333 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $359.06 · official $359.01 (match) · 475 history records