Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:54:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44cd…51d8 world 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 347d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%21W / 40L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days−$15
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$8
sports 14% +$1
other 13% $0
politics 12% +$3
economics 9% $0
finance 2% +$10
crypto 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.4% -11.7% 44% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 32 +59.7% +44.5% 31% 6% -10.5%
≤90d 43 +42.9% +29.3% 42% 7% -9.6%
all 61 +29.4% +17.1% 34% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.1% 5% -9.6%
10% +5.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -4.3% 2% -26.1%
20% -13.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses21 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage347d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $105 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $210 +$2 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $6 −$1 -20%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $163 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $70 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $89 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $33 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $90 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $98 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $9 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $165 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $804 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $567 −$15 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $115 −$4 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $13 +$2 +12%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $106 −$3 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $671 −$25 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $122 −$2 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $125 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $147 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $129 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $174 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $127 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $134 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $134 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $99 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $11 −$7 -65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $123 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $119 +$32 +26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $340 +$11 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $74 +$1 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $251 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $777 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $640 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $56 +$1 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $703 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $700 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 10 $3 −$2 -49%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 16 $126 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? Jul 16 $125 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 16 $105 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 16 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $99 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $69 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $90 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $89 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $75 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $82 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $98 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $98 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $65 34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $65 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $13 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $13 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $89 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $78 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $34 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $32 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $23 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.17 (match) · 304 history records