Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:31:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
44 0x44cf…460e other 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+0%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$14
politics 30% −$9
sports 8% +$62
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 112 +1.8% -7.9% 11% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 6% -9.4%
10% -16.7% 4% -18.1%
15% -24.8% 4% -26.0%
20% -32.1% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×13.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage124d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $281 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $192 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $220 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 07 $240 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $232 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $196 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $399 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $227 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $171 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $321 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $185 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $183 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $171 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $376 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $170 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $230 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $240 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $254 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $256 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $602 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $238 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $223 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $434 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $248 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $249 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $186 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $156 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $156 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $386 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 18 $195 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 16 $151 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $156 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $172 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $192 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $211 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $206 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $754 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 4d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 4d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 4d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 4d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 12d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 12d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 12d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $192 28d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $192 29d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $220 29d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $220 34d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $226 35d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $226 42d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $240 42d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $240 44d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $242 45d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $242 45d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 45d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 46d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $196 46d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $196 46d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $183 46d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $183 46d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $227 46d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $227 46d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $171 47d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $171 47d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $184 47d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $184 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 354 history records