Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44d3…e051 politics 52 markets active 16h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$872 (-72%) realized −$706 · open −$166
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%4W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$80
14 days−$104
30 days−$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$440
world 25% −$122
tech 17% −$198
crypto 6% −$73
other 3% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-69.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -75.2% -77.6% 0% 0% -96.2%
≤30d 10 -92.6% -93.3% 0% 0% -98.4%
≤90d 27 -82.0% -83.7% 4% 4% -70.1%
all 50 -66.2% -69.4% 8% 8% -73.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.4% 8% -73.8%
10% -72.3% 8% -76.3%
15% -75.0% 8% -78.6%
20% -77.5% 8% -80.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$20 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$706
Unrealized−$166
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses4 / 46
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage142d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 8¢ 0¢ $136 $2 −$134 (-98%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $34 $2 −$33 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -26%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $25 −$24 -96%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $48 −$46 -96%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $4 −$4 -96%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 03 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 03 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 03 $3 −$3 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 May 03 $4 −$4 -91%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $33 −$32 -96%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 29 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? Apr 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $33 −$10 -32%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $9 −$9 -100%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Trump post "POTUS" this week on Truth Social? Apr 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026? Apr 22 $26 −$10 -38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $45 +$121 +268%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union addr Feb 25 $3 +$6 +178%
Will Trump say "Mr. Speaker" during the 2026 State of the Union addres Feb 25 $10 +$44 +440%
Will Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 Stat Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during the 2 Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State Feb 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union a Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 30+ times in Rome, GA on Februa Feb 20 $13 +$37 +286%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during t Feb 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Fulton County" in Rome, GA on February 19? Feb 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "Egg" or "Bean" in Rome, GA on February 19? Feb 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" or "CNN" in Rome, GA on February 19? Feb 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times in Rome, GA on February 19? Feb 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times in Rome, Feb 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 15+ times in Rome, GA on February 19? Feb 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 03 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more? Feb 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? Feb 03 $9 −$9 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 03 $122 −$122 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.60 in January? Jan 31 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31? Jan 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $4 16h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $18 40h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $6 40h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 40h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $6 41h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $20 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $114 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 19¢ $56 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $14 15d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 0¢ $3 15d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $26 15d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 15d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 26d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 27d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 27d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 27d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 27d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 27d
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? BUY No 0¢ $12 44d
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? BUY No 0¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 44d
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? BUY No 0¢ $6 44d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 SELL No 0¢ $0 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.03 · official $4.03 (match) · 94 history records