Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44d4…7138 crypto 139 markets active 3d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (233 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19 (-3%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%64W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day233.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (233 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 +1.3% -8.3% 46% 44% -16.3%
≤30d 139 +1.3% -8.3% 46% 44% -16.3%
≤90d 139 +1.3% -8.3% 46% 44% -16.3%
all 139 +1.3% -8.3% 46% 44% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover233.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 44% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 42% -24.3%
15% -25.1% 41% -31.6%
20% -32.4% 37% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses64 / 75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day233.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 666 history records