Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:22:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
44 0x44d6…092b other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$148 (+4%) realized +$146 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days+$330
14 days+$119
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$15
sports 19% +$748
crypto 14% −$317
world 9% −$295
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +18.9% +7.6% 42% 37% +5.9%
≤30d 47 +18.7% +7.4% 38% 34% -6.1%
≤90d 47 +18.7% +7.4% 38% 34% -6.1%
all 47 +18.7% +7.4% 38% 34% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 34% -6.1%
10% -2.9% 32% -15.1%
15% -12.3% 26% -23.3%
20% -20.9% 23% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$60 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized+$146
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 29
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)47 / 52
History coverage10d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $60 $75 +$15 (+25%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $304 +$16 +5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$16 +16%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $62 −$60 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $52 +$198 +384%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $47 −$45 -96%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $62 −$60 -96%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -96%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$69 +335%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $103 +$331 +321%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $307 +$185 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $103 +$110 +107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $311 −$300 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 +$238 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -93%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $52 +$154 +299%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $256 −$250 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$307 +1479%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -96%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$34 +82%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $62 +$171 +277%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $103 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $62 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $103 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 94¢ $304 15h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $104 41h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $62 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $47 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $52 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $103 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $104 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $307 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $103 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $104 6d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $341 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $207 6d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $42 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $63 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.78 · official $301.78 (match) · 76 history records