Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
44 0x44d8…9574 sports 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,141 (+14%) realized +$1,325 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 28L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$659now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$111
14 days+$111
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$1,538
other 14% +$342
crypto 13% −$156
economics 6% −$504
politics 4% +$259
world 2% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-45.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -7.0% -15.8% 67% 67% +7.1%
≤30d 6 -7.0% -15.8% 67% 67% +7.1%
≤90d 6 -7.0% -15.8% 67% 67% +7.1%
all 39 -39.8% -45.5% 28% 28% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.5% 28% +6.9%
10% -50.7% 26% -3.3%
15% -55.5% 23% -12.7%
20% -59.8% 18% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$376 vs −$100 · ×3.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$659
Realized+$1,325
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 28
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage594d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 21¢ 22¢ $277 $283 +$7 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 51¢ 50¢ $177 $172 −$5 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $152 $152 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $39 $52 +$13 (+34%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Yes 28¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? Yes $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 26¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Lakers Spurs 45¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Spurs Spurs 59¢ $151 $0 −$151 (-100%)
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Pereira vs. Ankalaev Pereira 45¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Yes $269 $0 −$269 (-100%)
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in Rebounds? Yes 13¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Yes $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? No $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ $259 $0 −$259 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? Yes $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? Yes $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Pelicans Hornets 42¢ $389 $0 −$389 (-100%)
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? No 22¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $192 +$93 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $148 +$43 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $91 +$57 +63%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $77 +$13 +18%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $80 −$78 -98%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 11 $269 −$269 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Nov 13 $151 −$151 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Nov 12 $259 −$259 -100%
Spurs vs. Bulls Nov 11 $150 +$90 +60%
Spurs vs. Lakers Nov 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Suns Nov 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Heat vs. Spurs Oct 31 $369 +$150 +41%
Raptors vs. Spurs Oct 28 $246 +$123 +50%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? May 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? May 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? May 25 $100 −$100 -100%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? May 25 $491 −$75 -15%
Hornets vs. Pelicans Mar 30 $389 −$389 -100%
Clippers vs. Knicks Mar 27 $630 +$559 +89%
Pereira vs. Ankalaev Mar 09 $250 −$165 -66%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Mar 09 $500 −$95 -19%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Feb 03 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Jan 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 25 $30 −$30 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Jan 25 $75 −$75 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 11 $150 −$150 -100%
Will IF Elfsborg beat Braga? Nov 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid beat Paris Saint-Germain? Nov 07 $177 +$864 +488%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $368 +$259 +70%
Spurs vs. Jazz Nov 03 $1,486 +$1,883 +127%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel military action against Iraq before November? Nov 01 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? Oct 29 $161 −$161 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in Rebounds? Oct 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $283 9m
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $284 10m
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 66¢ $192 49m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $192 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $148 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $148 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $91 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $91 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $180 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $19 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $80 40h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $77 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $156 3d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $269 123d
Warriors vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 59¢ $151 213d
Warriors vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $100 214d
Warriors vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $59 214d
Warriors vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $100 214d
Spurs vs. Bulls BUY Spurs 61¢ $50 216d
Spurs vs. Bulls BUY Spurs 63¢ $100 217d
Spurs vs. Lakers BUY Spurs 45¢ $100 221d
Spurs vs. Suns BUY Spurs 76¢ $100 225d
Heat vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $119 227d
Heat vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 71¢ $100 228d
Heat vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 74¢ $150 229d
Raptors vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $246 230d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $100 230d
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $10 385d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $5 385d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $659.02 · official $659.26 (match) · 107 history records