Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44db…8e77 crypto 937 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (243 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$905 (-27%) realized −$905 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%386W / 550L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day242.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$522
7 days−$194
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$46
other 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (243 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 718 -14.7% -22.8% 34% 33% -17.4%
≤30d 936 -0.9% -10.4% 41% 39% -8.3%
≤90d 936 -0.9% -10.4% 41% 39% -8.3%
all 936 -0.9% -10.4% 41% 39% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover242.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 39% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 38% -17.1%
15% -26.8% 36% -25.1%
20% -33.9% 36% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$905
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses386 / 550
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)936 / 937
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day242.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 936 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$8 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.51 · official $1.51 (match) · 3500 history records