Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
44 0x44dd…a2ef other 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate48%47W / 50L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$19
other 32% −$1
politics 19% +$4
sports 13% $0
finance 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$13
culture 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 71% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 22 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 39 -0.1% -9.7% 36% 0% -9.7%
all 97 +10.8% +0.2% 48% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 6% -9.6%
10% -9.3% 5% -18.2%
15% -18.1% 3% -26.1%
20% -26.1% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses47 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 98
History coverage452d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $42 +$3 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $151 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $57 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $151 +$3 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $73 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $77 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $141 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $71 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $141 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $300 −$3 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $71 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $376 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $203 −$2 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $71 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $3 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $70 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $69 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $201 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $83 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $94 −$10 -11%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $169 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $85 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $84 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $85 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $7 $0 -3%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Apr 27 $1 $0 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $1,030 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $380 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $1,997 +$2 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $952 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $949 +$2 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $957 −$10 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $75 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 04 $0 $0 +350%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will valid votes be between 34 million and 36 million in South Korean Jun 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Spanish Grand Prix? Jun 03 $12 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? Jun 01 $12 $0 -1%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 31 $8 $0 +0%
Israel military action against Iran before June? May 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will Gold hit $3,600 before June? May 28 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $15 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $61 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $35 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $73 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $72 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $73 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $73 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $57 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $57 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $81 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $81 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $21 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $52 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $73 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $73 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $66 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 35¢ $5 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $72 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $77 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $8 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $62 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $70 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $26 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $43 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.14 · official $76.14 (match) · 358 history records