Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:52:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44dd…d839 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$33 (+8%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day65.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$61
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -28.9% -35.7% 31% 27% -25.6%
≤30d 26 -28.9% -35.7% 31% 27% -25.6%
≤90d 26 -28.9% -35.7% 31% 27% -25.6%
all 26 -28.9% -35.7% 31% 27% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.7% 27% -25.6%
10% ← realistic here -41.8% 27% -32.7%
15% -47.5% 27% -39.2%
20% -52.6% 23% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$16 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $37 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$12 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$16 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$33 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$17 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $12 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $8 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records