Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

44 0x44e0…5a40 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$16 (+14%) realized +$16 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate55%11W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$4per market

Trades / day3.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit77%portable

Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$29

7 days+$21

14 days+$15

30 days+$15

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)+7.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+50.1%	+35.8%	58%	58%	+19.6%
≤30d	20	+19.1%	+7.8%	55%	40%	+5.5%
≤90d	20	+19.1%	+7.8%	55%	40%	+5.5%
all	20	+19.1%	+7.8%	55%	40%	+5.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.8%	40%	+5.5%
10%	-2.5%	40%	-4.6%
15%	-12.0%	40%	-13.8%
20%	-20.6%	40%	-22.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

27% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +38% → late +1% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.46 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$20

Realized+$16

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses11 / 9

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)20 / 26

History coverage9d

Avg bet$4

Trades / day3.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Uzbekistan	55¢	55¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-2.5)	England	39¢	38¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$9	+$9	+101%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$5	+$6	+109%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$9	+$10	+119%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 21	$5	+$4	+73%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$5	+$5	+105%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 21	$5	+$7	+129%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan?	Jun 21	$1	+$5	+465%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Jun 16	$4	$0	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Jun 16	$1	+$1	+71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Jun 15	$5	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 14	$5	$0	-4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$5	43m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$5	43m
Spread: England (-2.5)	BUY England	39¢	$5	43m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Uzbekistan	55¢	$5	44m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A	BUY	31¢	$2	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? A	BUY	48¢	$3	1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$5	13h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$9	13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	45¢	$9	25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	54¢	$5	2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$5	2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	40¢	$5	2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY IR Iran	57¢	$5	2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	49¢	$5	2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	45¢	$5	2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan?	SELL Yes	53¢	$6	2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$5	2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Japan	43¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$4	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$1	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$2	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	SELL Down	40¢	$3	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	SELL Down	40¢	$1	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	SELL Down	40¢	$1	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$2	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$2	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	SELL Down	27¢	$1	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$1	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	SELL Up	36¢	$2	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.81 · official $24.81 · 43 history records