Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x44e0…0832
world · 55 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$10 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage520d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $39 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $25 +$1 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $65 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $102 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $76 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $58 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $36 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $82 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $39 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $76 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $40 −$1 -4%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $37 −$1 -3%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $37 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $44 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $32 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $119 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 24 $68 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $126 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $34 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 30 $34 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $41 $0 +0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Mar 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? Mar 22 $2 $0 +4%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 21 $42 +$2 +5%
Louisville vs. Notre Dame Feb 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February Feb 14 $6 +$1 +27%
Delaware vs. Towson Feb 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% +$1
other 21% +$6
sports 19% −$21
politics 11% +$1
crypto 4% +$2
economics 3% $0
weather 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $39 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $39 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $25 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 32¢ $3 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 32¢ $22 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $25 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $30 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $35 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $18 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $17 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $14 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $15 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $30 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $8 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $27 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $35 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $9 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $25 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $18 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 19 +13.6% +2.8% 37% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 47 +5.7% -4.4% 36% 2% -9.5%
all 54 +8.4% -1.9% 41% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 9% -9.9%
10% -11.3% 6% -18.5%
15% -19.9% 4% -26.4%
20% -27.7% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $0.00 · 237 history records