Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
44 0x44e2…84e7 crypto 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$4
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$10
world 19% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.3% -10.7% 64% 56% -11.2%
≤30d 29 +1.7% -8.0% 62% 52% -9.5%
≤90d 29 +1.7% -8.0% 62% 52% -9.5%
all 29 +1.7% -8.0% 62% 52% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 52% -9.5%
10% -16.8% 31% -18.1%
15% -24.8% 24% -26.0%
20% -32.2% 21% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage14d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$4 +140%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records