Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44e4…eabe world 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate36%27W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$4
other 24% +$7
politics 23% $0
sports 13% −$18
economics 3% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.8% -13.9% 33% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 24 -5.6% -14.6% 42% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 62 -2.4% -11.7% 32% 2% -9.4%
all 74 -1.1% -10.5% 36% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 7% -9.8%
10% -19.1% 5% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 5% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses27 / 47
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)74 / 78
History coverage526d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 82¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -36%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $42 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $33 +$3 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $33 +$3 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $93 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $34 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $89 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $30 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $136 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $28 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 -16%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $30 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $73 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $20 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $88 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $5 $0 -10%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $15 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $6 −$1 -25%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $72 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $141 −$1 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1 $0 +21%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $4 $0 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $45 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $73 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $54 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $18 $0 +1%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 08 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $23 $0 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 06 $103 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $1 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $33 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.20 · official $34.96 (match) · 351 history records