Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44e6…24f3 sports 207 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$189 (+2%) realized +$179 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%102W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days−$77
14 days+$253
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$340
other 18% −$371
crypto 17% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +11.6% +1.0% 50% 50% -12.8%
≤30d 159 -0.8% -10.3% 50% 47% -11.5%
≤90d 200 -0.7% -10.2% 51% 48% -9.5%
all 200 -0.7% -10.2% 51% 48% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 48% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 44% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 41% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 35% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$28 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized+$179
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses102 / 98
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions7
Markets (closed)200 / 207
History coverage32d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $65 $81 +$16 (+24%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 26¢ $35 $23 −$12 (-34%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 +$35 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $49 +$92 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +71%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$90 +90%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 +$52 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $4 +$21 +524%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $59 +$56 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$23 +63%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $95 −$59 -62%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $36 +$52 +146%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $36 +$37 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $54 +$40 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$31 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$30 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +122%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $93 +$114 +124%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $68 +$25 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$12 +33%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -87%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $62 +$48 +78%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $11 +$12 +107%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $12 +$50 +408%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $52 +$78 +149%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $35 +$24 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $56 +$52 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$11 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $36 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 80¢ $140 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $49 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $49 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $76 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $4 10h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 16h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $101 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $49 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $87 26h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 26h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 16¢ $4 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $114 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $59 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $58 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $36 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $36 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $95 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $67 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $36 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.82 · official $269.82 (match) · 472 history records