Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:05:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
44 0x44e9…ec97 sports 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$858 (-5%) realized −$853 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%53W / 46L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$466now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$408
7 days+$586
14 days+$620
30 days+$460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$1,068
other 8% +$276
world 8% +$22
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +7.7% -2.5% 52% 48% +23.2%
≤30d 26 +6.6% -3.5% 50% 42% +12.3%
≤90d 60 -6.7% -15.6% 53% 50% -18.5%
all 99 -1.9% -11.3% 54% 43% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 43% -13.8%
10% -19.8% 39% -22.1%
15% -27.5% 30% -29.6%
20% -34.6% 15% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$111 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$466
Realized−$853
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses53 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions5
Markets (closed)99 / 104
History coverage120d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $241 $236 −$5 (-2%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 0.5 Over 90¢ 90¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$139 +136%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $213 +$97 +46%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$67 +650%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $201 +$49 +24%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $302 +$87 +29%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $9 +$10 +104%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $151 +$69 +46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $29 −$28 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $185 +$77 +42%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $202 +$72 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$47 +307%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas May 29 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Nongshim RedForce (BO5) - Esports World Cu May 24 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 23 $202 +$72 +36%
Valorant: Nova Esports vs KeepBest Gaming (BO3) - China Evolution Seri May 23 $202 +$66 +33%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 22 $152 −$150 -99%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Team Weibo (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act May 22 $243 +$132 +54%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $101 +$37 +36%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Se May 21 $101 +$64 +64%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $101 +$40 +40%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $151 +$37 +24%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $91 +$31 +34%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $195 −$190 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $316 +$85 +27%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $959 −$949 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 17 $705 +$250 +36%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 16 $440 +$318 +72%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi May 16 $393 +$47 +12%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 16 $301 +$92 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $1,536 −$1,525 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $574 +$763 +133%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 15 $232 +$98 +42%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 15 $152 +$111 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $201 12m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $243 46m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 94¢ $241 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 7h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $310 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $213 23h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $250 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $201 29h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 30h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $389 45h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 45h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $302 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $465.51 · official $465.51 (match) · 238 history records