Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:43:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
44 0x44e9…7130 crypto 1200 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,283 (-53%) realized −$7,283 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%434W / 766L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 119d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,089
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -20.5% -28.1% 74% 11% -7.9%
≤30d 19 -20.5% -28.1% 74% 11% -7.9%
≤90d 548 -8.8% -17.5% 32% 30% -11.8%
all 1200 -14.7% -22.8% 36% 32% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 32% -16.7%
10% -30.2% 31% -24.7%
15% -36.9% 29% -32.0%
20% -43.1% 26% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,283
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses434 / 766
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1200 / 1200
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1200 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $56 +$3 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$3 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$16 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 04 $1 +$4 +396%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 04 $1 +$3 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 04 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 04 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 04 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 04 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $56 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $52 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $51 24h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $27 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $18 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $48 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $44 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $22 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $22 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $44 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records