Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:39:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44ef…ff3d other 323 markets active 7d ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,907 (+0%) realized +$4,512 · open +$395
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate85%273W / 48L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$4,769per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$5,020now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$116
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$14,159
world 15% +$3,070
politics 11% +$1,204
finance 10% −$19,564
crypto 9% +$2,726
tech 8% +$2,152
economics 5% +$1,142
culture 1% +$342
weather 1% +$73
sports 1% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -21.4% -28.8% 50% 50% -36.4%
≤90d 35 +7.1% -3.1% 94% 20% -7.7%
all 321 -0.2% -9.7% 85% 17% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 17% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 12% -17.9%
15% -26.3% 8% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$3,034) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$621 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$5,020
Realized+$4,512
Unrealized+$395
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses273 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)321 / 323
History coverage275d
Avg bet$4,769
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $4,500 $4,998 +$498 (+11%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 25¢ $125 $22 −$103 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 22 $230 −$156 -68%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 22 $160 +$40 +25%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $337 −$289 -86%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $187 +$29 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 10? May 16 $415 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 10? May 16 $1,055 +$13 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $3,286 +$105 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 22 $1,182 +$166 +14%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 22 $1,878 +$122 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 1? Apr 01 $16 +$21 +138%
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by March 31? Apr 01 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? Apr 01 $280 +$9 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $147 +$153 +104%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? Apr 01 $503 +$47 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $617 +$48 +8%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Apr 01 $579 +$214 +37%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $946 +$54 +6%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1,382 +$222 +16%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $1,297 +$13 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1,538 +$93 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 01 $1,655 +$3 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $2,350 +$12 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 01 $2,542 +$33 +1%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 01 $3,034 +$24 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 01 $3,056 +$6 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March? Apr 01 $4,092 +$63 +2%
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31? Apr 01 $5,249 +$53 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of March? Apr 01 $5,813 +$29 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $5,809 +$192 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Apr 01 $6,880 +$213 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $12,611 +$117 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $13,919 +$57 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 01 $16,155 +$182 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $28,601 +$568 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 01 $55,978 +$1,237 +2%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 30 $150 −$150 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Mar 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Mar 29 $4,200 +$360 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 25? Mar 28 $719 +$1 +0%
Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Mar 28 $4,965 +$50 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 25? Mar 28 $5,340 +$5 +0%
Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Mar 28 $5,520 +$30 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25? Mar 28 $6,341 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 23? Mar 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on March 18? Mar 24 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on March 19 Mar 24 $67 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $2,124 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on March 21? Mar 24 $2,865 +$20 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $48,885 +$49 +0%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 18 $88 +$12 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL Yes 11¢ $74 7d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $25 43d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $51 43d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $1 43d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $14 43d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $9 43d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $10 43d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $0 43d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes $57 43d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $31 43d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $117 43d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $5 43d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $40 43d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $12 43d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes $159 43d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes $0 43d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes $2 43d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes $3 44d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes $36 44d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $70 44d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $139 44d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 49d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 49d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 49d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 49d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 49d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 49d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 49d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 49d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,019.75 · official $5,019.75 (match) · 2051 history records